Consumer preferences for sleep-tracking wearables: The role of scientific evaluation and endorsement.

OBJECTIVES: Accuracy and relevance to health outcomes are important to researchers and clinicians who use consumer sleep technologies, but economic demand motivates consumer sleep technology design. This report quantifies the value of scientific relevance to the general consumer in a dollar amount to convey the importance of device accuracy in terms that consumer sleep technology manufacturers can appreciate. METHODS: Survey data were collected from 368 participants on Amazon mTurk. Participants ranked sleep metrics, evaluation methods, and scientific endorsement by perceived level of importance. Participants indicated their likelihood of purchasing a hypothetical consumer sleep technology that had either (1) not been evaluated or endorsed; (2) had been evaluated but not endorsed, and; (3) had been evaluated and endorsed by a sleep science authority. Demand curves determined the relative value of each consumer sleep technology. RESULTS: Devices that were evaluated and endorsed had the most value, followed by those only evaluated, and then those with no evaluation. The unit price at which there was 50% probability of purchase increased by $30 or $48 for evaluation or endorsement, respectively, relative to a nonvalidated device. Respondents indicated the most valuable sleep metric was sleep duration, the most important evaluation method was against laboratory/hospital standards for sleep, and that the highest value of endorsement came from a medical institution. CONCLUSIONS: Consumer demand is greatest for a device that has been evaluated by an independent laboratory and is endorsed by a medical institution. Consumer sleep technology manufacturers may be able to increase sales by partnering with sleep science authorities to produce a scientifically superior device.

A general model of demand and discounting.

OBJECTIVE: A simulation using a two-commodity demand model, with time as the constraint, replicated the primary findings from delay discounting experiments and introduces explicit terms for time elasticity and cross-price substitution into the delay discounting paradigm. METHOD: A two-commodity temporal demand equation based on Hursh and Silberberg (2008) and Hursh (2014) was used to emulate delay discounting experiments. The own-price and cross-price demand curves intersected and plotting those indifference points emulated the usual hyperbolic discount function for substitutes. Simulations examined delay discounting in relation to (a) time elasticity of demand, (b) substitution between the delayed and immediate alternatives, and (c) amplitude of demand for the delayed alternative. RESULTS: The simulated discount functions with substitutes were hyperbolic. The discount rate was a direct function of increasing time elasticity and substitutability of delayed alternative demand, shifting the function toward an exponential model. Amplitude of demand for the delayed alternative was inversely proportional to discount rate and supported a hyperboloid model with a power function of time (Killeen, 2015; Rachlin, 2006). The emulation of cross-commodity discounting involving drugs points to amplitude and persistence of time-dependent demand and cross-commodity substitution as primary factors. CONCLUSIONS: This report describes the first general model of time-dependent demand and delay discounting. The model implicates cross-commodity substitution as a potential factor in delay discounting. In the context of substance use disorder, the model underscores the importance of defining the properties of multicommodity demand (time elasticity, substitution, and amplitude) specific to the commodities and context. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Time Cost and Demand: Implications for Public Policy.

The success of policy involves not only good design but a good understanding of how the public will respond behaviorally to the benefits or detriments of that policy. Behavioral science has greatly contributed to how we understand the impact of monetary costs on behavior and has therefore contributed to policy design. Consumption taxes are a direct result of this; for example, cigarette taxes that aim to reduce cigarette consumption. In addition to monetary costs, time may also be conceptualized as a constraint on consumption. Time costs may therefore have policy implications, for example, long waiting times could deter people from accessing certain benefits. Recent data show that behavioral economic demand curve methods used to understand monetary cost may also be used to understand time costs. In this article we discuss how the impact of time cost can be conceptualized as a constraint on demand for public benefits utilization and public health when there are delays to receiving the benefits. Policy examples in which time costs may be relevant and demand curve methods may be useful are discussed in the areas of government benefits, public health, and transportation design.

Latent factor structure of behavioral economic heroin and cocaine demand curves.

Research has shown that behavioral economic demand curve indices can be characterized by a two-factor latent structure and that these factors can predict dimensions of substance use. No study to date has examined the latent factor structure of heroin and cocaine demand curves. The objective of this study was to use exploratory factor analysis to examine the underlying factor structure of the facets of heroin and cocaine reinforcement derived from heroin and cocaine demand curves. Participants were 143 patients from two samples that met the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5; American Psychiatric Association [APA], 2013) criteria for opioid dependance and were undergoing medication-assisted treatment (methadone or buprenorphine). Heroin and cocaine demand curves were generated via hypothetical purchase tasks (HPT) that assessed consumption at 9 or 17 levels of prices from $0 to $500. Five facets of demand were generated from the tasks (Q0, 1/α, Pmax, Omax, and break point). Principal components analysis was used to examine the latent structure among the variables. The results revealed a two-factor solution for both heroin and cocaine demand. These factors were interpreted as persistence, consisting of 1/α, Pmax, Omax, and break point, and amplitude, consisting of Q0 and Omax, and in one case, 1/α. Heroin factors had some predictive power for future substance use, but cocaine factors did not. These findings suggest that heroin and cocaine demand indices can be reduced to two factors indicating sensitivity and volume of consumption, and that these factors may be able to predict substance use for heroin. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Behavioral economic methods predict future COVID-19 vaccination.

Increasing vaccine utilization is critical for numerous diseases, including COVID-19, necessitating novel methods to forecast uptake. Behavioral economic methods have been developed as rapid, scalable means of identifying mechanisms of health behavior engagement. However, most research using these procedures is cross-sectional and evaluates prediction of behaviors with already well-established repertories. Evaluation of the validity of hypothetical tasks that measure behaviors not yet experienced is important for the use of these procedures in behavioral health. We use vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic to test whether responses regarding a novel, hypothetical behavior (COVID-19 vaccination) are predictive of later real-world response. Participants (N = 333) completed a behavioral economic hypothetical purchase task to evaluate willingness to receive a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine based on efficacy. This was completed in August 2020, before clinical trial data on COVID-19 vaccines. Participants completed follow-up assessments approximately 1 year later when the COVID-19 vaccines were widely available in June 2021 and November 2021 with vaccination status measured. Prediction of vaccination was made based on data collected in August 2020. Vaccine demand was a significant predictor of vaccination after controlling for other significant predictors including political orientation, delay discounting, history of flu vaccination, and a single-item intent to vaccinate. These findings show predictive validity of a behavioral economic procedure explicitly designed to measure a behavior for which a participant has limited-to-no direct prior experience or exposure. Positive correspondence supports the validity of these hypothetical arrangements for predicting vaccination utilization and advances behavioral economic methods.

A goal of behavioral science is to develop methods that can predict future behavior to inform preventive health efforts and identify ways people engage in positive health behaviors. Behavioral economic methods apply easy to use and rapid assessment tools to evaluate these mechanisms of health behavior engagement. Here, we show how similar methods can be applied to novel behaviors yet experienced like intentions to vaccinate against COVID-19. We find that responses on a behavioral economic task designed to measure vaccination likelihood closely corresponded to the likelihood of being vaccinated 1 year later. This prediction was above and beyond common predictors of vaccination including demographics like political orientation and age. These findings provide support for these novel methods in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically, and behavioral health, broadly.

Technical, Regulatory, Economic, and Trust Issues Preventing Successful Integration of Sensors into the Mainstream Consumer Wearables Market.

Sensors that track physiological biomarkers of health must be successfully incorporated into a fieldable, wearable device if they are to revolutionize the management of remote patient care and preventative medicine. This perspective article discusses logistical considerations that may impede the process of adapting a body-worn laboratory sensor into a commercial-integrated health monitoring system with a focus on examples from sleep tracking technology.

Behavioral economic methods to inform infectious disease response: Prevention, testing, and vaccination in the COVID-19 pandemic.

The role of human behavior to thwart transmission of infectious diseases like COVID-19 is evident. Psychological and behavioral science are key areas to understand decision-making processes underlying engagement in preventive health behaviors. Here we adapt well validated methods from behavioral economic discounting and demand frameworks to evaluate variables (e.g., delay, cost, probability) known to impact health behavior engagement. We examine the contribution of these mechanisms within a broader response class of behaviors reflecting adherence to public health recommendations made during the COVID-19 pandemic. Four crowdsourced samples (total N = 1,366) completed individual experiments probing a response class including social (physical) distancing, facemask wearing, COVID-19 testing, and COVID-19 vaccination. We also measure the extent to which choice architecture manipulations (e.g., framing, opt-in/opt-out) may promote (or discourage) behavior engagement. We find that people are more likely to socially distance when specified activities are framed as high risk, that facemask use during social interaction decreases systematically with greater social relationship, that describing delay until testing (rather than delay until results) increases testing likelihood, and that framing vaccine safety in a positive valence improves vaccine acceptance. These findings collectively emphasize the flexibility of methods from diverse areas of behavioral science for informing public health crisis management.

Addressing fatigue in medical residents with biomathematical fatigue modeling.

Fatigue in resident physicians has been identified as a factor that contributes to burnout and a decline in overall wellbeing. Fatigue risk exists because of poor sleep habits and demanding work schedules that have only increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At this time, it is important not to lose sight of how fatigue can impact residents and how fatigue risk can be mitigated. While fatigue mitigation is currently addressed by duty hour restrictions and education about fatigue, Fatigue Risk Management Systems (FRMSs) offer a more comprehensive strategy for addressing these issues. An important component of FRMS in other shiftwork industries, such as aviation and trucking, is the use of biomathematical models to prospectively identify fatigue risk in work schedules. Such an approach incorporates decades of knowledge of sleep and circadian rhythm research into shift schedules, taking into account not just duty hour restrictions but the temporal placement of work schedules. Recent research has shown that biomathematical models of fatigue can be adapted to a resident physician population and can help address fatigue risk. Such models do not require subject matter experts and can be applied in graduate medical education program shift scheduling. It is important for graduate medical education program providers to consider these alternative methods of fatigue mitigation. These tools can help reduce fatigue risk and may improve wellness as they allow for a more precise fatigue management strategy without reducing overall work hours.

Biomathematical Modeling Predicts Fatigue Risk in General Surgery Residents.

OBJECTIVE: To assess resident fatigue risk using objective and predicted sleep data in a biomathematical model of fatigue. DESIGN: 8-weeks of sleep data and shift schedules from 2019 for 24 surgical residents were assessed with a biomathematical model to predict performance ("effectiveness"). SETTING: Greater Washington, DC area hospitals RESULTS: As shift lengths increased, effectiveness scores decreased and the time spent below criterion increased. Additionally, 11.13% of time on shift was below the effectiveness criterion and 42.7% of shifts carried excess sleep debt. Sleep prediction was similar to actual sleep, and both predicted similar performance (p ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Surgical resident sleep and shift patterns may create fatigue risk. Biomathematical modeling can aid the prediction of resident sleep patterns and performance. This approach provides an important tool to help educators in creating work-schedules that minimize fatigue risk.

Integrating Operant and Cognitive Behavioral Economics to Inform Infectious Disease Response: Prevention, Testing, and Vaccination in the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The role of human behavior to thwart transmission of infectious diseases like COVID-19 is evident. Yet, many areas of psychological and behavioral science are limited in the ability to mobilize to address exponential spread or provide easily translatable findings for policymakers. Here we describe how integrating methods from operant and cognitive approaches to behavioral economics can provide robust policy relevant data. Adapting well validated methods from behavioral economic discounting and demand frameworks, we evaluate in four crowdsourced samples (total N = 1,366) behavioral mechanisms underlying engagement in preventive health behaviors. We find that people are more likely to social distance when specified activities are framed as high risk, that describing delay until testing (rather than delay until results) increases testing likelihood, and that framing vaccine safety in a positive valence improves vaccine acceptance. These findings collectively emphasize the flexibility of methods from diverse areas of behavioral science for informing public health crisis management.

A zero-bounded model of operant demand.

Contemporary approaches for evaluating the demand for reinforcers use either the Exponential or the Exponentiated model of operant demand, both derived from the framework of Hursh and Silberberg (2008). This report summarizes the strengths and complications of this framework and proposes a novel implementation. This novel implementation incorporates earlier strengths and resolves existing shortcomings that are due to the use of a logarithmic scale for consumption. The Inverse Hyperbolic Sine (IHS) transformation is reviewed and evaluated as a replacement for the logarithmic scale in models of operant demand. Modeling consumption in the "log10 -like" IHS scale reflects relative changes in consumption (as with a log scale) and accommodates a true zero bound (i.e., zero consumption values). The presence of a zero bound obviates the need for a separate span parameter (i.e., k) and the span of the model may be more simply defined by maximum demand at zero price (i.e., Q0 ). Further, this reformulated model serves to decouple the exponential rate constant (i.e., α) from variations in span, thus normalizing the rate constant to the span of consumption in IHS units and permitting comparisons when spans vary. This model, called the Zero-bounded Exponential (ZBE), is evaluated using simulated and real-world data. The direct reinstatement ZBE model showed strong correspondence with empirical indicators of demand and with a normalization of α (ZBEn) across empirical data that varied in reinforcing efficacy (dose, time to onset of peak effects). Future directions in demand curve analysis are discussed with recommendations for additional replication and exploration of scales beyond the logarithm when accommodating zero consumption data.

Purchase task sensitivity to drug and nondrug reinforcers in opioid-agonist treatment patients.

The behavioral economics of substance abuse has been increasingly recognized as a method of determining the value of abused substances for individuals who use those substances. It has been hypothesized that such analyses could serve as a clinical tool and that demand functions can be targeted predictors for the level of intervention necessary. This study evaluated the sensitivity of a demand task in 2 patient groups in a medication assisted treatment program (methadone maintenance), those who had used opioids in the last 2 months and those who had not used opioids in at least 18 months. Demand for 7 drugs and a control was assessed using hypothetical purchase tasks. Participants maintaining long-term abstinence had significantly higher α (sensitivity to price) and lower Q0 (intensity of demand) for heroin than participants who had recently used opioids. Further research is necessary to illustrate if treatment is responsible for this reduction in demand. If so, demand analyses may provide clinical utility as an aid for treatment planning or as a target for treatment.

Behavioral economic demand in opioid treatment: Predictive validity of hypothetical purchase tasks for heroin, cocaine, and benzodiazepines.

BACKGROUND: Behavioral economics provides a framework in which to understand choice and motivation in the field of substance use disorders. Hypothetical purchase tasks (HPT), which indicate the amount or probability of purchasing substances at different prices, have been suggested as a clinical tool that can help predict future substance use and identify targets for intervention. METHODS: Hypothetical demand for heroin, cocaine, and benzodiazepines was assessed at baseline and after six-months in 52 opioid-agonist treatment patients. The results were analyzed using a novel exponential demand equation (normalized zero-bounded exponential model [ZBEn]) that uses a log-like transform that accommodates zero consumption values. RESULTS: Demand for these drugs was well described by the ZBEn model. After six months, demand intensity for heroin was decreased and demand metrics for cocaine and benzodiazepines increased. Multiple demand curve indices at baseline predicted the percentage of drug-positive urinalysis results at follow-up, even after controlling for covariates. Additionally, participants were divided into High and Low baseline demand groups for each drug based on demand indices. Participants with High demand at baseline for 8 out of 9 groups had significantly more drug-positive urine samples in the subsequent 6-month period. CONCLUSIONS: This report provides evidence that demand assessment is predictive of future substance use and could help guide treatment planning at intake. These results also demonstrated that the ZBEn model provides good fits to consumption data and allows for sensitive statistical analyses.

Fatigue in surgical residents an analysis of duty-hours and the effect of hypothetical naps on predicted performance.

PURPOSE: Sleep loss and fatigue, common in resident physicians, are related to increased medical errors and decreased physician wellbeing. Biomathematical modeling of fatigue can illuminate the relationship between surgical resident fatigue and work scheduling. METHODS: General surgery resident schedules were analyzed using the Sleep, Activity, Fatigue and Task Effectiveness model to predict resident performance during work hours. Hypothetical naps were built into the model to assess their effect on predicted performance and fatigue risk. RESULTS: 12 months of duty-hours logged by 89 residents, ranging from post-graduate year (PGY) 1-5, were analyzed. Residents had moderate levels of fatigue risk over 12 month schedules, with at least an 8-h sleep debt during 24.36% of shifts. Performance scores decreased as shift lengths increased. The addition of hypothetical naps increased predicted performance and reduced shift time with fatigue risk. CONCLUSIONS: Biomathematical modeling of resident schedules and predicts a concerning level of fatigue and decreased effectiveness. Naps may improve performance without decreasing scheduled hours.

Trends in Strategic Napping in Surgical Residents by Gender, Postgraduate Year, Work Schedule, and Clinical Rotation.

OBJECTIVE: To identify surgical resident and clinical rotation attributes which predict on-shift napping through objectively measured sleep patterns and work schedules over a 2-month period. DESIGN: In a cross-sectional study, participants provided schedules, completed the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and wore sleep-tracking devices (Zulu watch) continuously for 8 weeks. Multiple linear regression predicted percent days with on-shift napping from resident and rotation characteristics. SETTING: Greater Washington, DC area hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-two (n = 22) surgical residents rotating in at least 1 of 5 different clinical rotation categories. RESULTS: Residents slept 6 hours within a 24-hour period (370 ± 129 minutes) with normal sleep efficiency (sleep efficiency (SE): 87.13% ± 7.55%). Resident ESS scores indicated excessive daytime sleepiness (11.64 ± 4.03). Ninety-five percent (n = 21) of residents napped on-shift. Residents napped on-shift approximately 32% of their working days and were most likely to nap when working between 23:00 and 05:00 hours. Earlier shift start times predicted less on-shift napping (B = -0.08, SE = 0.04, ß = -2.40, t = -2.09, p = 0.05) while working more night shifts (B = 1.55, SE = 0.44, ß = 4.12, t = 3.52, p = 0.003) and shifts over 24 hours (B = 1.45, SE = 0.55, ß = 1.96, t = 2.63, p = 0.01) predicted more frequent on-shift napping. CONCLUSIONS: Residents are taking advantage of opportunities to nap on-shift. Working at night seems to drive on-shift napping. However, residents still exhibit insufficient sleep and daytime sleepiness which could reduce competency and represent a safety risk to themselves and/or patients. These findings will help inform intervention strategies which are tailored to surgical residents using a biomathematical model of fatigue.

Quantifying the Impact of Public Perceptions on Vaccine Acceptance Using Behavioral Economics.

This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of public perceptions of vaccine safety and efficacy on intent to seek COVID-19 vaccination using hypothetical vaccine acceptance scenarios. The behavioral economic methodology could be used to inform future public health vaccination campaigns designed to influence public perceptions and improve public acceptance of the vaccine. In June 2020, 534 respondents completed online validated behavioral economic procedures adapted to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine demand in relation to a hypothetical development process and efficacy. An exponential demand function was used to describe the proportion of participants accepting the vaccine at each efficacy. Linear mixed effect models evaluated development process and individual characteristic effects on minimum required vaccine efficacy required for vaccine acceptance. The rapid development process scenario increased the rate of decline in acceptance with reductions in efficacy. At 50% efficacy, 68.8% of respondents would seek the standard vaccine, and 58.8% would seek the rapid developed vaccine. Rapid vaccine development increased the minimum required efficacy for vaccine acceptance by over 9 percentage points, γ = 9.36, p < 0.001. Past-3-year flu vaccination, γ = -23.00, p < 0.001, and male respondents, γ = -4.98, p = 0.037, accepted lower efficacy. Respondents reporting greater conspiracy beliefs, γ = 0.39, p < 0.001, and political conservatism, γ = 0.32, p < 0.001, required higher efficacy. Male, γ = -4.43, p = 0.013, and more conservative, γ = -0.09, p = 0.039, respondents showed smaller changes in minimum required efficacy by development process. Information on the vaccine development process, vaccine efficacy, and individual differences impact the proportion of respondents reporting COVID-19 vaccination intentions. Behavioral economics provides an empirical method to estimate vaccine demand to target subpopulations resistant to vaccination.

Validation of Zulu Watch against Polysomnography and Actigraphy for On-Wrist Sleep-Wake Determination and Sleep-Depth Estimation.

Traditional measures of sleep or commercial wearables may not be ideal for use in operational environments. The Zulu watch is a commercial sleep-tracking device designed to collect longitudinal sleep data in real-world environments. Laboratory testing is the initial step towards validating a device for real-world sleep evaluation; therefore, the Zulu watch was tested against the gold-standard polysomnography (PSG) and actigraphy. Eight healthy, young adult participants wore a Zulu watch and Actiwatch simultaneously over a 3-day laboratory PSG sleep study. The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of epoch-by-epoch data were tested against PSG and actigraphy. Sleep summary statistics were compared using paired samples t-tests, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman plots. Compared with either PSG or actigraphy, both the accuracy and sensitivity for Zulu watch sleep-wake determination were >90%, while the specificity was low (~26% vs. PSG, ~33% vs. actigraphy). The accuracy for sleep scoring vs. PSG was ~87% for interrupted sleep, ~52% for light sleep, and ~49% for deep sleep. The Zulu watch showed mixed results but performed well in determining total sleep time, sleep efficiency, sleep onset, and final awakening in healthy adults compared with PSG or actigraphy. The next step will be to test the Zulu watch's ability to evaluate sleep in industrial operations.

Behavioral economic demand metrics for abuse deterrent and abuse potential quantification.

INTRODUCTION: Behavioral economics provides a framework for quantifying drug abuse potential that can inform public health risk, clinical treatment, and research. Hypothetical purchase task (HPT) questionnaires may provide a low-cost and sensitive method by which to measure and predict the appeal of pharmaceutical drugs that differ by formulation. However, the validity of this type of analysis must be empirically established by comparing the "essential value" (EV) of different drugs across subgroups. PROCEDURES: This pilot study used HPT assessments and the Exponential Model of Demand to quantify the EV of opioid medications-specifically, easily tampered formulations versus (vs.) abuse-deterrent formulations-in patients with a history of opioid abuse. MAIN FINDINGS: Participants had more inelastic demand for opioid pills than for cigarettes and alcohol. Participants with experience manipulating pills (M group) had more inelastic demand for standard pills vs. participants with no manipulation experience (NM group), and the M group had a more elastic demand for the abuse-deterrent opioid pill than for the standard pill. There was no effect of formulation in the NM group and there was no difference in demand elasticity for abuse-deterrent pills between the two groups. There was a positive correlation between the EVs of different drugs, and between some behavioral economic indices and treatment variables. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that HPTs may provide a sensitive measure of abuse potential that can distinguish between different formulations in at-risk populations.

Like chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), pigeons (Columba livia domestica) match and Nash equilibrate where humans (Homo sapiens) do not.

Martin, Bhui, Bossaerts, Matsuzawa, and Camerer (2014) found that chimpanzee pairs competing in matching-pennies games achieved the Nash equilibrium whereas human pairs did not. They hypothesized this outcome may be due to (a) chimpanzee ecology producing evolutionary changes that give them a cognitive advantage over humans in these games, and (b) humans being disadvantaged because the cognition necessary for optimal game play was traded off in evolution to support language. We provide data relevant to their hypotheses by exposing pairs of pigeons to the same games. Pigeons also achieved the Nash equilibrium, but did so while also conforming with the matching law prediction on concurrent schedules where choice ratios covary with reinforcer ratios. The cumulative effects model, which produces matching on concurrent schedules, also achieved the Nash equilibrium when it was simulated on matching-pennies games. The empirical and simulated compatibility between matching law and Nash equilibrium predictions can be explained in two ways. Choice to concurrent schedules, where matching obtains, and choice in game play, where the Nash equilibrium is achieved, may reflect the operation of a common process in choice (e.g., reinforcer maximization) for which matching and achieving the Nash equilibrium are derivative. Alternatively, if matching in choice is innate as some accounts argue, then achieving the Nash equilibrium may be an epiphenomenon of matching. Regardless, the wide species generality of matching relations in nonhuman choice suggests game play in chimpanzees would not prove advantaged relative to most species in the animal kingdom. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).